"The past is no predictor of the future."

“The past is no predictor of the future.” It is an age-old philosophical statement that has sparked debates on both sides of the fence. Some take the existentialist approach with the proposal that the future only exist from the exact moment it was created; the past is irrelevant to its creation. The opposing team of this view suggest that the past can be used as an accurate prognostic tool to make an educated guess on the outcome of the future. However, I take a more moderate stance between the two. While there are many aspects of the past that can be used to make an educated guess about the future, one should not discredit unknown future events that could throw off the predicted outcome.

There are many areas and disciplines in our lives that have a recurrent trend or pattern that can be used to make a fairly accurate depiction of the future. In fact, the use of historical information or data for future predictions is a method that is used very commonly in many areas. For example, the data of a population census can be used to project the future number of a country's population. If there was a increasing trend in the numbers over the past few years, one can safely assume that the numbers would continue to follow an upward trend over the next year or so. Likewise, in the business field, historical trends and data are used to project the outcome of demand and supply of a company's product. Though there is a possibility that the actual outcome might not reflect the predicted forecast exactly, to a certain extent it is safe to say that the past can be used as an predictor of the future.

Like math, there are many variables in the equation in life that can throw all certainties off-kilter. Even if we are armed with the ability to establish a formulaic approach that provides the best predictions, one should always consider the unknown factors or events that can change the outcome. Nothing is set in stone. An outstanding student with an excellent track record could be expected to pass the next exam with flying colors. However, there is also the possibility of the student failing the exam due to unforeseen circumstances like a severe injury, or distraction from his or her studies from an unexpected romance. Also, pulling from the first example of the previous paragraph, a nation's anticipated population growth could take a downturn due to war, or an epidemic disease and so on.

In conclusion, I would like to reiterate my views on the topic issue. While I agree with the topic statement, I do not believe in the absolute view that it has presented. To a certain extent, the past can be used as an predictor of the future for there are recurrent historical trends and patterns that can be used to make an educated guess of the future. However, I also believe that one must also take into consideration the possibility of unknown factors and events that can affect the predicted outcome.